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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who engineered the largest improvement is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or merely the most shocking upset.

However this year's race is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions fading and recent strugglers rising in unison. In an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this chaotic and fun season, he's competing with multiple other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost every bet – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, he bet on newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still